Do you remember when the Government said that 20,000 deaths would be a ‘good outcome’ and a 'good result' from the coronavirus crisis?
Sadly, it turned out to be a target that couldn’t be met.
But it also serves as a crucial reminder of the importance of not getting drawn into speculation and predictions and saying something that may cause future embarrassment when managing a crisis.
The “good result” comment was made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, back on March 17 when he addressed a Westminster committee.
At the time, the UK’s COVID-19 death toll stood at 71.
He was asked what the final tally of British deaths could be and responded by saying that 20,000 deaths would be a “good outcome”.
Eleven days later, when the number of deaths had reached 1,091, Stephen Powis, NHS England's medical director, used the same benchmark, saying: “If we can keep deaths below 20,000, we will have done very well."
Yet, just six weeks on from Sir Patrick’s original comment the 20,000 figure had been surpassed.
And those comments came back to haunt the government:
Coronavirus: The ‘good outcome’ that never was BBC News
Coronavirus: Experts once said 20,000 deaths was a 'good outcome' - so where is the UK headed now? Sky News
UK coronavirus deaths: Why the 'good outcome' death toll of 20,000 was hopelessly optimistic Independent
Does 20,000 hospital deaths milestone mean failure for UK? BBC News
You can see the problem.
When Sir Patrick made his now-infamous comment, it may have been based on wishful thinking and the best case virus modelling scenarios, but it also made him and the government a hostage to fortune.
20,000 deaths became an unofficial target or benchmark of how well the government was managing the crisis. Essentially, anything below that number would be seen as a success and anything beyond could be regarded as a failure and give ammunition to the critics.
And naturally, as soon as the ‘good’ figure was surpassed, the narrative shifted to questions of failure and what should have been done differently.
Notably, at the Downing Street press conference on the day the 20,000 figure had been surpassed, the first question asked whether the milestone meant the ‘strategy should have been different’.
This is why we tell delegates on our media training courses to be careful about being drawn into speculation and making bold claims, or even targets, particularly when managing crisis media management incidents.
For example, when something has gone wrong, it can be tempting in your statements and interviews to promise that it will never happen again. But the danger here is that you promise something which is difficult to live up to or simply tees you up for future embarrassment. The media simply does not forget these types of claims.
The speculation problem can also often be found in the questions of journalists who invite spokespeople to predict what might happen.
Journalism has sometimes been described as the “relentless pursuit of the new”. And if reporters don’t know something, they can always speculate about it – look at how many articles there are currently about when lockdown might end and what a relaxation of the restrictions may look like.
And they invite interviewees to do the same. ‘What would happen if…?’ is a favoured question. In a crisis situation, they may try to get you to speculate about the cause of the incident. Or they may seek to get a bold statement from you by asking whether your can ‘guarantee’ it won’t happen again.
The key for spokespeople is to be aware of the risks of speculating and the damage it can cause and to practice dealing with questions that call for predictions.
Think about how you would handle a question that invited you to speculate during a crisis and how you could respond without getting drawn in or sounding like you were trying to dodge or avoid it.
For example, when Sir Patrick was asked to estimate how many deaths there may be from coronavirus, he could have said something like: “I don’t want to make predictions about how many deaths there could be. I don’t think that would be helpful. But what I can tell you is that there are steps and measures that we need to take to try to reduce the impact of this virus.”
Get in touch with your account manager to find out more about how we can help you with your internal and external communications challenges. Our bespoke, training by videoconference can help you deliver better interviews, refine and test messages and ensure you are best prepared to face a crisis.
Media First are media and communications training specialists with over 30 years of experience. We have a team of trainers, each with decades of experience working as journalists, presenters, communications coaches and media trainers.
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